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Key point 5 of 8 · Geopolitics of Space and the Arctic Frontier
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Melting Sea Ice and New Shipping Corridors

Satellite records maintained by the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), which has tracked Arctic sea ice extent continuously since 1979, show a pronounced long-term decline in summer minimum ice cover, with September 2012 setting what was then a record low of roughly 3.39 million square kilometers, well below the 1981-2010 average of around 6.22 million square kilometers for that month; subsequent years have generally remained far below the historical baseline even without surpassing the single 2012 record, and climate models project the Arctic Ocean could experience largely ice-free summers within the coming decades if current warming trends continue. This retreat of multi-year ice has directly enabled greater commercial and military navigation across routes that were historically impassable for most of the year.

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