Aging, Policy, and Population Theory

Japan is the world's most aged large society: as of the early 2020s, roughly 29 percent of its population is 65 or older, compared with a global average nearer 10 percent, and its median age of about 49 is the highest of any country with a population over 10 million. Germany and Italy follow a similar trajectory within Europe, each with around 23 to 24 percent of their population aged 65 or above, driven by decades of below-replacement fertility (Italy's TFR has remained under 1.3 since the late 1990s) combined with high life expectancy and, particularly for Germany, relatively limited immigration until the 2015 refugee arrivals partially offset the trend. Japan's population itself peaked around 128 million in 2008 and has been declining every year since, losing roughly half a million to nearly a million people annually in the early 2020s, a pattern Germany and Italy are each expected to follow within a generation absent sustained immigration. The consequences are already visible in shrinking school enrollments, labor shortages in sectors such as construction and eldercare, and a rising share of national budgets devoted to pensions and long-term care rather than education or infrastructure.